NOVEMBER 3, 2026 · CANDIDATE COMPARISON
Pennsylvania · District 10
Explore the candidates, ballot sources, and election outlooks.
Campaign finance & independent spending
District map & covered places
Loading district outline…
Where this district is
Part of Cumberland County · Dauphin County · Part of York County
County relationships describe coverage; use your full address to locate a specific home.
Census county relationships; NY and PA boundaries unchanged for the 120th CongressSource date: not supplied · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
Statements on campaign pages
6 reviewed questions from the campaign pages. Other voter concerns have not been assessed; this order does not rank priorities.
Source timing. Individual statement dates are unknown · Checked October 2, 2026. Perry’s page uses Biden–Harris wording and reports 2024 page metadata; current-cycle applicability remains uncertain.
Candidate list and source dates
York County’s sample ballot for Carroll Township, York County, Pennsylvania, Ballot ID 58, lists Janelle Stelson (Democratic), Scott Perry (Republican) and a write-in line for Representative in Congress, 10th District, in the November 3, 2026 election.
York County sample ballot — PDF page 2 · Checked 2026-10-02. Linked from the county elections page.
One county-published precinct sample ballot only. No exhaustive county/district candidate-omission review or determination of any person’s write-in status. This is not a retrieved statewide certification.
Pennsylvania’s Official Candidate Listing – Post Primary was rechecked October 2, 2026 in a browser. Its Representative in Congress table, filtered to 10th Congressional District, lists Janelle Stelson (DEM) and Scott Perry (REP), with two filtered entries. The saved Pollscape election snapshot lists the same two candidates, captured 2026-09-07.
Pennsylvania Department of State candidate listing — filter the Representative in Congress table to 10th Congressional District. The URL does not preserve that filter.
The separate state election directory was checked with 2026 General Election (November 3, 2026) selected. It includes primary filings; filtering to this office, district and primary winners returns Perry and Stelson. This is a listing recheck, not a claim of a separately retrieved certification or an exhaustive review of withdrawals, objections or write-ins. FEC registration alone does not establish ballot inclusion.
Perry’s Issues page reports page-level publication metadata of June 11, 2024 and last modification of September 23, 2024. It repeatedly refers to Biden–Harris. His campaign home page still links to these sections, and the campaign voting page identifies the November 3, 2026 election. This supports describing what the linked page says; it does not verify that every statement was reaffirmed for 2026. Current-cycle applicability remains uncertain.
Stelson’s Priorities page reports page-level publication metadata of July 11, 2025 and last modification of September 16, 2026. This supports current-cycle page context. Neither site’s metadata establishes when an individual statement was made or changed. Copyright, election and retrieval dates are also separate from statement dates.
Taxes, budgets and spending
What tax and budget changes does each candidate propose?
Janelle Stelson
View Janelle Stelson profile →Stated on campaign pagePage metadata: published July 11, 2025; modified September 16, 2026. The date of each statement is unknown.
Supports middle-class tax relief, permanent exemption of tips and overtime, and reduced wasteful federal spending.
Statement date unknown · Checked 2026-10-02
Source and review details for Janelle Stelson
Janelle Stelson campaign — Priorities
Location: Cost of living and economy, first policy paragraph and following spending paragraph
“no tax on tips or overtime”
Short excerpts help locate the statement. The full section supplies context.
Captured:
Statement timing: Statement date unknown.
Capture SHA-256: a006800ee0c28edb32feca565bd2d96c4e2e6bf66fb81a6b7a464641505b40c8
Review scope: Bounded review of the named campaign platform page only.
- Campaign page is undated; retrieval and review dates are not statement dates.
- One campaign page only; no comprehensive public-position or historical search.
- Change over time has not been assessed.
History: Change not assessed.
Scott Perry
View Scott Perry profile →Stated on campaign pagePage metadata: published June 11, 2024; modified September 23, 2024. Reaffirmation of these statements for the 2026 campaign has not been verified.
Supports a balanced-budget amendment, reduced federal debt and regulation, and lower taxes for families and small businesses.
Statement date unknown · Checked 2026-10-02
Source and review details for Scott Perry
Location: Economy, policy introduction and four bullet points
“A Balanced Budget Amendment”
Short excerpts help locate the statement. The full section supplies context.
Captured:
Statement timing: Statement date unknown.
Capture SHA-256: 4e92f4f7513005a95e749076f49a363c243a897ca64bbcdcbcaca1890997c6c9
Review scope: Bounded review of the named campaign platform page only.
- Campaign page is undated; retrieval and review dates are not statement dates.
- One campaign page only; no comprehensive public-position or historical search.
- Change over time has not been assessed.
- The page repeatedly refers to Biden–Harris; current-cycle applicability needs owner review before publication.
History: Change not assessed.
Question coverage and comparison limits
These questions cover the linked campaign pages reviewed here. Other policy questions have not been assessed here. Topic order does not rank voter priorities.
Taxes and tariffs have separate questions so a general tax statement cannot supply a missing tariff position. These are policy summaries; they do not imply agreement on an identical yes/no proposition.
These summaries describe statements on linked campaign pages checked October 2, 2026. They do not establish voting records, policy outcomes or changes over time. Perry’s four summaries have not been verified as reaffirmed for the 2026 campaign.
Ballot status & sources
State report labeled unofficial, post-primary. Listings may change following withdrawals or court decisions.Candidate status and ballot participation follow the cited source snapshot and may change.
Pennsylvania unofficial candidate listing — post-primarySource date: not supplied · Retrieved Sep 7, 2026
Choose two candidates to inspect their ballot information and documented affiliations.
| Candidate details | ||
|---|---|---|
| Documented affiliations | Janelle Stelson Research pending Future caucus membership is unconfirmed unless explicitly documented. | Scott Perry Research pending Future caucus membership is unconfirmed unless explicitly documented. |
Choose a candidate to see the arithmetic for this seat.
This is a conditional illustration, not a forecast of the next Congress. It assumes the selected candidate takes this seat and all other current seats stay unchanged. Party affiliation does not confirm future caucus membership or voting behavior.
MARKET-IMPLIED CHANCES
Prediction markets
What traders’ prices imply about each party winning. These percentages are not vote shares or a Pollscape forecast.
Polymarket live charts
Republican Party wins
Charts connect to Polymarket and update independently of the dated odds below. Buy buttons are disabled. If a chart is unavailable, the odds and original market links remain available.
Polymarket
Democratic Party wins81.5%
Bid/ask midpoint · active
All-time volume
$5,396.61 USDPast 24 hours
$95.6 USD
$5,396.61 USDPast 24 hours
$95.6 USD
Contract, prices & source
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-10 House seat?
Yes bid: $0.81 · Yes ask: $0.82
Provider record updated: Thu, 22 Oct 2026 18:34:14 GMT. This is not necessarily the time of the last trade.
Republican Party wins18.5%
Bid/ask midpoint · active
All-time volume
$7,854.01 USDPast 24 hours
$207.53 USD
$7,854.01 USDPast 24 hours
$207.53 USD
Contract, prices & source
Will the Republican Party win the PA-10 House seat?
Yes bid: $0.18 · Yes ask: $0.19
Provider record updated: Thu, 22 Oct 2026 18:34:14 GMT. This is not necessarily the time of the last trade.
Published contracts for this election. Unpublished placeholder outcomes are excluded.
Data retrieved Thu, 22 Oct 2026 18:34:38 GMT.
Kalshi
Democratic Party wins83%
Inferred from last traded price · active
All-time volume
23,756.26 contractsPast 24 hours
236.63 contracts
23,756.26 contractsPast 24 hours
236.63 contracts
Contract, prices & source
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-10?
Yes bid: $0.81 · Yes ask: $0.83
Provider record updated: Tue, 15 Sep 2026 23:04:29 GMT. This is not necessarily the time of the last trade.
Republican Party wins18%
Inferred from last traded price · active
All-time volume
17,847.56 contractsPast 24 hours
479.39 contracts
17,847.56 contractsPast 24 hours
479.39 contracts
Contract, prices & source
Will Republican win the House race for PA-10?
Yes bid: $0.17 · Yes ask: $0.18
Provider record updated: Fri, 16 Oct 2026 16:32:33 GMT. This is not necessarily the time of the last trade.
Party contracts settle on the member sworn in for the term beginning in 2027; the rules allow earlier determination.
Data retrieved Thu, 22 Oct 2026 18:34:38 GMT.
How to read odds and volume
For these $1 binary contracts, a $0.63 price implies 63%. Kalshi percentages use the last traded price and are labeled as inferred. Polymarket uses the bid/ask midpoint for spreads up to $0.10, otherwise the last trade when available. Sparse trading and wide spreads can make odds less informative.
Each outcome is shown separately. We do not infer the other party’s odds, force percentages to total 100%, or combine providers. Party contracts are not candidate-specific predictions. Settlement rules differ between providers.
Kalshi volume counts contracts; Polymarket volume is in dollars. All-time and past-24-hour amounts are separate. They measure trading activity, not voter support, confidence, unique traders or campaign funds. Volumes are not added across outcomes or providers.
Sources refresh on demand after 15 minutes. Retrieval time and provider record update time are separate; a last-trade timestamp is not supplied here. Failed refreshes retain dated data. Closed, non-trading and post-election contracts do not display live odds.
PUBLISHED ANALYST ASSESSMENTS
Election ratings
Editorial assessments of how competitive this race is. Ratings are qualitative categories, not numerical odds or poll results.
Inside Elections
Rating dated May 21, 2026 · Previously Tilt Republican.
Source checked Oct 9, 2026. This snapshot is stale. The source refresh failed; the last successfully retrieved rating is retained.
Publisher’s ratings & context ↗About these ratings
Inside Elections’ scale runs from Solid, Likely, Lean and Tilt for a party to Toss-up. Its rating date can precede our retrieval date when an assessment has not changed. We show the publisher’s assessment without converting it into a probability or combining it with other sources.
Current rating coverage is Inside Elections. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings are not yet ingested.
REPORTED VOTER RESPONSES
Polling
Survey results measure reported voter preferences, not a candidate’s chance of winning. Surveys retain their dates and tested matchups; earlier polls may name candidates who are no longer running.
3 survey results available. Different populations or matchups from the same survey are shown separately.
Normington Petts & Associates
Apr 20, 2026 – Apr 23, 2026 · 400 registered voters
NAMED MATCHUP AS POLLED · DEM-AFFILIATED SOURCE
| Response | Share |
|---|---|
| Janelle Stetson | 51% |
| Scott Perry | 45% |
The compilation spells the first response “Janelle Stetson.” That source spelling is preserved; it is not linked to a candidate identity.
Survey context, sponsor & source
Sponsor: Not supplied in the compilation
Figures are from VoteHub’s polling compilation. Candidate and response names are preserved as supplied; older or hypothetical matchups may differ from the current ballot. Unreported responses are not assigned to an invented “undecided” category.
Verbatim question, interview method and uncertainty interval are not supplied in this feed. Consult the linked release for those details. No average or probability is calculated.
Source release or report listed by VoteHub ↗
Retrieved Oct 22, 2026 · VoteHub polling compilation
Public Policy Polling
Nov 18, 2025 – Nov 19, 2025 · 549 registered voters
NAMED MATCHUP AS POLLED · DEM-AFFILIATED SOURCE
| Response | Share |
|---|---|
| Scott Perry | 44% |
| Janelle Stelson | 48% |
Survey context, sponsor & source
Sponsor: Republicans Against Perry
Figures are from VoteHub’s polling compilation. Candidate and response names are preserved as supplied; older or hypothetical matchups may differ from the current ballot. Unreported responses are not assigned to an invented “undecided” category.
Verbatim question, interview method and uncertainty interval are not supplied in this feed. Consult the linked release for those details. No average or probability is calculated.
Source release or report listed by VoteHub ↗
Retrieved Oct 22, 2026 · VoteHub polling compilation
Public Policy Polling
Jul 10, 2025 – Jul 11, 2025 · 559 all voters
NAMED MATCHUP AS POLLED · DEM-AFFILIATED SOURCE
| Response | Share |
|---|---|
| Scott Perry | 43% |
| Janelle Stelson | 46% |
Survey context, sponsor & source
Sponsor: House Majority PAC
Figures are from VoteHub’s polling compilation. Candidate and response names are preserved as supplied; older or hypothetical matchups may differ from the current ballot. Unreported responses are not assigned to an invented “undecided” category.
Verbatim question, interview method and uncertainty interval are not supplied in this feed. Consult the linked release for those details. No average or probability is calculated.
Source release or report listed by VoteHub ↗
Retrieved Oct 22, 2026 · VoteHub polling compilation
Polling coverage & attribution
Checked VoteHub’s 2026 House/Senate general-election polling feed and Pollscape’s reviewed original releases. No entry means no matching survey in these sources, not proof that none exists.
Feed last retrieved Oct 22, 2026. Polling refreshes on demand after six hours.
Compiled data: VoteHub Polling API, licensed under CC BY 4.0. Pollscape filters and reformats the data, preserves the reported response values, and removes duplicates of reviewed original releases. Inclusion does not imply endorsement by the pollster or VoteHub.