NOVEMBER 3, 2026 · CANDIDATE COMPARISON
New York · District 4
Explore the candidates, ballot sources, and election outlooks.
Campaign finance & independent spending
District map & covered places
Loading district outline…
Where this district is
Part of Nassau County
County relationships describe coverage; use your full address to locate a specific home.
Census county relationships; NY and PA boundaries unchanged for the 120th CongressSource date: not supplied · Retrieved Sep 8, 2026
Ballot status & sources
State election authority list; subject to amendments.Candidate status and ballot participation follow the cited source snapshot and may change.
New York amended general election certificationSource date: Sep 3, 2026 · Retrieved Sep 7, 2026
Choose two candidates to inspect their ballot information and documented affiliations.
| Candidate details | Jeanine C. DriscollRepublicanPhoto unavailable Republican · Conservative · Certified | |
|---|---|---|
| Documented affiliations | Laura A. GillenFuture caucus membership is unconfirmed unless explicitly documented. | Jeanine C. Driscoll Research pending Future caucus membership is unconfirmed unless explicitly documented. |
Choose a candidate to see the arithmetic for this seat.
This is a conditional illustration, not a forecast of the next Congress. It assumes the selected candidate takes this seat and all other current seats stay unchanged. Party affiliation does not confirm future caucus membership or voting behavior.
MARKET-IMPLIED CHANCES
Prediction markets
What traders’ prices imply about each party winning. These percentages are not vote shares or a Pollscape forecast.
Polymarket live charts
Republican Party wins
Charts connect to Polymarket and update independently of the dated odds below. Buy buttons are disabled. If a chart is unavailable, the odds and original market links remain available.
Polymarket
Democratic Party wins91.5%
Bid/ask midpoint · active
All-time volume
$8,806.88 USDPast 24 hours
$3,011.11 USD
$8,806.88 USDPast 24 hours
$3,011.11 USD
Contract, prices & source
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-04 House seat?
Yes bid: $0.91 · Yes ask: $0.92
Provider record updated: Thu, 22 Oct 2026 18:34:14 GMT. This is not necessarily the time of the last trade.
Republican Party wins8.2%
Bid/ask midpoint · active
All-time volume
$14,192.45 USDPast 24 hours
$4,136.17 USD
$14,192.45 USDPast 24 hours
$4,136.17 USD
Contract, prices & source
Will the Republican Party win the NY-04 House seat?
Yes bid: $0.075 · Yes ask: $0.09
Provider record updated: Thu, 22 Oct 2026 18:34:14 GMT. This is not necessarily the time of the last trade.
Published contracts for this election. Unpublished placeholder outcomes are excluded.
Data retrieved Thu, 22 Oct 2026 18:34:47 GMT.
Kalshi
Democratic Party wins92.6%
Inferred from last traded price · active
All-time volume
23,642.62 contractsPast 24 hours
1,510.76 contracts
23,642.62 contractsPast 24 hours
1,510.76 contracts
Contract, prices & source
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-4?
Yes bid: $0.928 · Yes ask: $0.929
Provider record updated: Tue, 15 Sep 2026 21:35:05 GMT. This is not necessarily the time of the last trade.
Republican Party wins6.9%
Inferred from last traded price · active
All-time volume
68,094.15 contractsPast 24 hours
371.57 contracts
68,094.15 contractsPast 24 hours
371.57 contracts
Contract, prices & source
Will Republican win the House race for NY-4?
Yes bid: $0.065 · Yes ask: $0.079
Provider record updated: Fri, 16 Oct 2026 16:32:25 GMT. This is not necessarily the time of the last trade.
Party contracts settle on the member sworn in for the term beginning in 2027; the rules allow earlier determination.
Data retrieved Thu, 22 Oct 2026 13:24:41 GMT. Data is stale. Refresh failed; showing the last successful snapshot.
How to read odds and volume
For these $1 binary contracts, a $0.63 price implies 63%. Kalshi percentages use the last traded price and are labeled as inferred. Polymarket uses the bid/ask midpoint for spreads up to $0.10, otherwise the last trade when available. Sparse trading and wide spreads can make odds less informative.
Each outcome is shown separately. We do not infer the other party’s odds, force percentages to total 100%, or combine providers. Party contracts are not candidate-specific predictions. Settlement rules differ between providers.
Kalshi volume counts contracts; Polymarket volume is in dollars. All-time and past-24-hour amounts are separate. They measure trading activity, not voter support, confidence, unique traders or campaign funds. Volumes are not added across outcomes or providers.
Sources refresh on demand after 15 minutes. Retrieval time and provider record update time are separate; a last-trade timestamp is not supplied here. Failed refreshes retain dated data. Closed, non-trading and post-election contracts do not display live odds.
PUBLISHED ANALYST ASSESSMENTS
Election ratings
Editorial assessments of how competitive this race is. Ratings are qualitative categories, not numerical odds or poll results.
Inside Elections
Rating dated Dec 5, 2025.
Source checked Oct 9, 2026. This snapshot is stale. The source refresh failed; the last successfully retrieved rating is retained.
Publisher’s ratings & context ↗About these ratings
Inside Elections’ scale runs from Solid, Likely, Lean and Tilt for a party to Toss-up. Its rating date can precede our retrieval date when an assessment has not changed. We show the publisher’s assessment without converting it into a probability or combining it with other sources.
Current rating coverage is Inside Elections. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings are not yet ingested.
REPORTED VOTER RESPONSES
Polling
Survey results measure reported voter preferences, not a candidate’s chance of winning. Surveys retain their dates and tested matchups; earlier polls may name candidates who are no longer running.
1 survey result available. Different populations or matchups from the same survey are shown separately.
Impact Research
Feb 9, 2026 – Feb 17, 2026 · 500 likely voters
DISTRICT GENERIC BALLOT · PARTY PREFERENCE
| Response | Share |
|---|---|
| Rep | 41% |
| Dem | 46% |
Survey context, sponsor & source
Sponsor: Protecting American Consumers Together
Figures are from VoteHub’s polling compilation. Candidate and response names are preserved as supplied; older or hypothetical matchups may differ from the current ballot. Unreported responses are not assigned to an invented “undecided” category.
Verbatim question, interview method and uncertainty interval are not supplied in this feed. Consult the linked release for those details. No average or probability is calculated.
Source release or report listed by VoteHub ↗
Retrieved Oct 22, 2026 · VoteHub polling compilation
Polling coverage & attribution
Checked VoteHub’s 2026 House/Senate general-election polling feed and Pollscape’s reviewed original releases. No entry means no matching survey in these sources, not proof that none exists.
Feed last retrieved Oct 22, 2026. Polling refreshes on demand after six hours.
Compiled data: VoteHub Polling API, licensed under CC BY 4.0. Pollscape filters and reformats the data, preserves the reported response values, and removes duplicates of reviewed original releases. Inclusion does not imply endorsement by the pollster or VoteHub.